November 17, 2008

TIN - Temple-Inland

What I paid for it: Still looking thanks!

What I like about it:
  • I love to see recent insider buying. People sell stock for all sorts of reasons, but only buy stock for one reason:










  • Low, low, low P/E 0.42, industry at 7.42 (did I read that right... yup ya did).
  • Price to book 0.61, industry at 1.4.
  • Current Ratio 2.19, industry at 0.92.
  • Annual EPS growth at 77, industry at 4.16.
  • 5 yr Dividend Growth rate 77.79.
  • Market Cap 470M
  • Low low price to sales ratio 0.12, industry .23
  • 95% institutional ownership, they are running the long race here.

What I don't like about it:
  • Meets all the key criteria for Graham Investing... it is cheap, it can pay off its debts, and it has a great dividend... So what is wrong with it. No free lunch is there?
  • 95% institutional ownership- when one bank sells, they all start selling and you are in chaos very quickly.
  • Half of the business is wrapped up in housing products. The other half is packaging for products. Not really happy little industries these days are they.
  • A couple new execs in the company indicates they understood they needed changes, but the people they shuffled around came from areas where they didn't really have a lot of success so is it enough?
  • $47.10 to $4 stock price in one year...humm that is quite a kick for 1yr, quite a kick.






Why I bought it:

Still thinking about it.

Best Case Scenario:
New management increase market confidence. 1 yr ride max and a nice return.

Worst Case Scenario:
Bankruptcy, loose it all good bye.

What are your thoughts?